Written by Hamid Atharinejad

Not as a military expert, but based on interpretations from analysts—many of whom present partisan views and primarily aim to influence public sentiment—and also based on certain existing evidence, one can predict a continuation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, at least in the short term.
Should such an event take place, what underlying risks can be anticipated for organizations, depending on their field of activity?
1. In the event that Iran's infrastructure is targeted, the supply chain for raw materials across production units may be significantly affected.
2. The production of goods will be impacted by the crisis, depending on the type of product. In times of uncertainty, consumer demand will naturally prioritize essential goods over non-essential ones.
3. The presence of personnel—particularly in high-risk regions—will likely be disrupted.
4. The government’s recent decision to deport immigrants—regardless of whether the implementation was right or wrong—has, in itself, exacerbated the personnel shortage in industrial, construction, and agricultural sectors.
5. The liquidity cycle is likely to enter a state of crisis as a result of widespread defaults on obligations by counterparties.
6. In times of crisis, exchange rates tend to rise sharply due to a combination of psychological and economic pressures. This often leads to significant hesitation among business owners as they struggle to strike a balance between maintaining customer loyalty and adjusting sales prices.
7_ The crisis conditions in consumer behavior show that during the initial peak of the crisis, there is a sharp increase in demand followed by stagnation in the market. This causes disruption in the distribution cycle.
8_ One of the important factors causing the displacement of inflation and, on the other hand, recession in parallel markets can be the investors' tendency to move toward more accessible markets. Markets such as coins, currency, and gold experience an increase, while markets like real estate, stocks, and bonds face a recession.
9_ Experience has shown that in times of crisis, population movement from high-risk areas to safer regions also disrupts the goods distribution cycle, even when production is stable.
Several other factors may also be considered depending on the type of the organization's activity, which can be examined on a case-by-case basis.
I hope experienced managers can consider the necessary strategies to minimize the damage in the event of a crisis.
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